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Impact of national and regional lockdowns on COVID-19 epidemic waves: Application to the 2020 spring wave in France

Abstract : Abstract Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like “where” and “when” still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increases. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow exponentially with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality and stress on the healthcare system.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal.ehesp.fr/hal-03820475
Contributor : SCD EHESP Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, October 19, 2022 - 9:38:08 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, October 20, 2022 - 3:55:22 AM

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Jonathan Roux, Clément Massonnaud, Vittoria Colizza, Simon Cauchemez, Pascal Crepey. Impact of national and regional lockdowns on COVID-19 epidemic waves: Application to the 2020 spring wave in France. 2021. ⟨hal-03820475⟩

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