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First estimation of direct H1N1pdm virulence: From reported non consolidated data from Mauritius and New Caledonia

Abstract : We provide rough estimates of direct lethality from ARDS due to H1N1pdm from two independent sources of data, one from New Caledonia where 30,000 infections are assumed to have occured and 3 deaths reported to be attributable directly to the pandemic virus. Another source is Mauritius where 70,000 infections are estimated to have occured, and 7 reported death from ARDS (5 of them are currently confirmed). These surveillance data allows for first estimation of direct lethality due to H1N1pdm to be 1 per 10,000 infections, about 100 times more than regular seasonal influenza.
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Submitted on : Friday, January 22, 2021 - 12:42:18 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, January 26, 2022 - 3:41:38 AM

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Antoine Flahault. First estimation of direct H1N1pdm virulence: From reported non consolidated data from Mauritius and New Caledonia. PLoS Currents, Public Library of Science, 2009, 1, pp.RRN1010. ⟨10.1371/currents.rrn1010⟩. ⟨hal-03118562⟩

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